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What we know even before the European Earthquake has hit

Sunday, May 25, 2014

 

Well, the Local Elections have certainly brought a large political tremor and it doesn’t take a geologist to predict that the earthquake is coming with the European election results.

Before that happens here’s some things that we’ve already learnt:

  • Nigel Farage will stand in 2015 in a parliamentary seat ‘south of the river’
  • After describing their last general election manifesto as ‘400 pages of drivel’ UKIP will be preparing domestic policies and a programme for government. They will find target seats for 2015 and ‘throw the kitchen sink at them’
  • The myth that UKIP only takes vote from the Conservatives is well and truly destroyed
  • Based on these results at a general election there would be a hung parliament and UKIP would have Members of Parliament
  • Ed Miliband needs to work on his message and his personal style. Politics shouldn’t be a beauty pageant but something just isn’t gelling with voters
  • The Conservatives are worried; Eric Pickles ‘congratulated’ Farage and George Osborne said he ‘respected’ him. We’re a long way from ‘fruitcakes’ and ‘loonies’
  • The Liberal Democrats are even more worried. They lost a lot of seats and are traditionally a bit of a force locally so it's going to hurt. Rumblings of a Leadership contest (albeit unlikely) are afoot 
  • Despite going into coalition with the Liberal Democrats (ahem -the biggest pact you can do in politics) David Cameron says that the Conservative party ‘does not and will not do pacts with UKIP’
  • The protest vote, if it in fact exists, is not moving enough to Labour who are the main opposition and should be by rights the party people protest through
  • There will be lots of listening (seems to be the ‘in’ word after every mid-term bashing)
  • There remains a lot of platitudes and vagueness about ‘understanding’, ‘needing to have a debate’ and ‘presenting solutions to people’s concerns’ all without actually saying anything especially about immigration. (Although hats off to Theresa May for actually suggesting some potential policies on the Andrew Marr programme)

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