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EU Referendum Night 2016  - Getting the Results

The Table below gives the approximate time that Returning Officers have told the Electoral Commission they hope that the count will be completed. They can never be sure. A ballot box may have been left in the back room and had to be found and the ballot papers and figures may not add up and have to be checked. It is possible to call for a recount in a local authority area but this is unlikely to happen and the whole country cannot be recounted if the result is close. 

Papers only have to be sorted into two piles unlike the general election, when there may be five or six candidates, but, on the hand, this becomes a mechanical process and so may actually require more concentration from the counters to make sure papers do not go on the wrong pile.

Our Methodology

The Region of each local authority is included so that it will be possible to keep track of how the first results from each region are going as an indicator as to how other local authorities in the region might vote.  When local government in England was reorganised in the early 1970s some districts were given strange names because smaller towns that were being amalgamated into a large authority resented it being called after the biggest town. For these I have put the name of the biggest town or two biggest towns so that you have some idea as to where they are. The table gives the place of the local authority in the Eurosceptic Index with Havering the most Eurosceptic, and so 1, and Ceredigion the least Eurosceptic at 188.  The YouGov data in parts of England is only for the whole county local authority such as Kent or Warwickshire and so the county number is given for each district in the table. For Northern Ireland there is a C or P to show whether the constituency has a majority Catholic or Protestant population. As the results come in it is worth looking to see which way local authorities with an index in the 70s and 80s are going as these are about in the middle range of Euroscepticism.

The First Results

About 12.30

Sunderland is working hard to be the first area to declare, as it has in recent general elections.  It will be important as a Labour city but less Eurosceptic than some of the surrounding areas and will point towards the North East vote. The other results predicted for now are Wandsworth, an inner London borough with a large professional population and Foyle, a Northern Ireland constituency with a large Catholic majority and both should be clearly for Remain.

About 12.45

The City of London is to declare. There is a small population here, in flat areas such as the Barbican, and with a professional population is likely to be strongly for remain.

About 1.00

Gibraltar is delaying its count to 11.00 local time, so as not to start before British polls close, and should produce a solid Remain majority. The other results due are Newcastle, Oldham and Swindon. The large northern cities have to vote Remain for that side to win and Newcastle must be a victory for them. Oldham is not as Europhile or prosperous as Manchester but is within its orbit and Remain will hope to win here too. It may give some indication as to how the Asian population is voting. The Swindon result will show if the New Towns really are Eurosceptic, despite their relative prosperity. It will be a pointer to Basildon, Crawley, Harlow, Redditch, Dacorum, Peterborough, Stevenage, Welwyn-Hatfield and Bracknell Forest.  Northern Ireland results are coming in earlier than in general elections and West Tyrone is another mainly Catholic area.

About 1.15

Three Belfast results come in now. Belfast East is strongly Protestant Belfast West strongly Catholic and Belfast South has a small Catholic majority so this will show whether there is much difference in voting between the two communities. Hartlepool is the sort of smaller working class town that has not seen recent prosperity and if Leave lose here they may be in trouble, unless the North east votes in a different way to other regions.

About 1.30

A number of local authorities come in now. North Hertfordshire is the first Conservative area to declare and will show whether Cameron has secured enough of the Conservative vote for Remain to win. There are many similar areas across the South East. If it goes firmly either way then that will be an indicator as to which side as won, if it is close then we may not know the result for a long time. Merthyr Tydfil will show whether the Welsh Valleys are as clearly for Leave as the polls indicate. Wigan is another declining town like Hartlepool and Salford, next to Manchester, is similar to Oldham.  The first Scottish results come in with Stirling, a university town, likely to be strongly pro Remain and Eilean Siar, the Outer Hebrides, an area that often behaves eccentrically in general elections but where there is a long standing SNP influence. The Isles of Scilly has a small population and, with the fishing industry being pro-Leave, is likely to vote that way. Strangford, Lagan Valley, North Down are Protestant dominated constituencies in Norther Ireland and Belfast South more mixed.

About 1.45

Denbighshire is difficult to predict with some rural areas where Plaid Cymru are strong and some seaside and urban areas.

About 2.00

A mixture of local authorities come in now and patterns should start to emerge. The new town area of Basildon may follow Swindon though South Essex has given strong support for UKIP anyway so may still go for Leave even if Swindon has gone the other way. Hart, Richmondshire and Malvern Hills are all relatively prosperous Conservative areas but in widely separated parts of the country and, with North Hertfordshire, should give an idea as to how these sorts of areas have voted.  Westminster in central London and Oxford, as a university town but with a working class population in the eastern part, should both be Remain. Sandwell, South Tyneside and Wrexham are all poorer, ex-industrial areas and may go for Leave though Sandwell has a larger ethnic minority population.  Blaenau Gwent is another Welsh Valley local authority and may vote Leave, while the Scottish authorities of Clackmannanshire and South Lanarkshire should be Remain. It will be interesting to see whether Neath Port Talbot on the South Wales coast is different from the Valleys but the steel industry problems may have an impact here. The Shetland Isles are a law unto themselves and may even see Brussels as an ally against Edinburgh.  South Norfolk is the first East Anglian result and may be more for Leave than earlier Conservative local authorities. Ipswich may be less Eurosceptic than surrounding areas of East Anglia and will be a key result. Nuneaton and Bedworth, Tamworth and  North Warwickshire are very much middle England both geographically and socially  and marginal in party politics and so will be a good indicator of the final results, unless the West Midlands behaves differently to other regions.

From now on you should be able to see patterns for yourself and the commentators will start to interpret them. In the 2.30 group most local authorities are similar to ones already declared but North Dorset is the first South West authority and Lincoln the first from the East Midlands.  If it still looks close then you need to stay up until after 5am. I went to bed on the night of the Welsh devolution vote convinced that the Assembly plan was defeated but then found that the last two rural authorities were so pro-devolution that it was won by a whisker.  In the EU Referendum the big cities of Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool , Leicester and Bristol that Remain would hope to win are not likely to declare until after 5am and if they are strongly so then may tilt the balance the other way. If it is really so close that the last 20 smaller authorities decide the result then the arguments will start all over again as the result is not legally binding on Parliament.

Detailed Table From 12:30

Foyle

Northern Ireland

C

Sunderland

North East

129

Wandsworth

London

135

About 12.45

City of London

London

No data

About 1.00

Gibraltar

Newcastle-upon -Tyne

North East

133

Oldham

North West

76

Swindon

South-West

12

West Tyrone

Northern Ireland

C 

About 1.15

Belfast East

Norther Ireland

P

Belfast South

Northern Ireland

C

Belfast West

Northern Ireland

C

Hartlepool

North East

No data

About 1.30

Belfast North

Northern Ireland

P

Eilean Sair (Outer Hebrides)

Scottish Highlands/Islands

No data

Isles of Scilly

South West

No data

Lagan Valley

Northern Ireland

P

Merthyr Tydfil

South Wales

No data

North Down

Northern Ireland

P

North Hertfordshire

South East

68

Salford

North West

95

Stirling

Scotland

186

Stockport

North West

134

Strangford

Northern Ireland

P

Wigan

North West

50

About 1.45

Denbighshire

North and Rural Wales

126

About 2.00

Basildon

South East

39 (county)

Blaenau Gwent

South Wales

No data

Clackmannanshire

Scotland

No data

Dover

South East

61

Ealing

London

42

Hart (Fleet)

South East

58 (county)

Ipswich

East Anglia

22 (county)

Malvern Hills

West Midlands

74 (county)

Neath Port Talbot

South Wales

71

North Antrim

Northern Ireland

P

North Tyneside

North East

106

North Warwickshire

West Midlands

82 (county)

Nuneaton and Bedworth

West Midlands

82 (county)

Oxford

South East

141 (county)

Richmondshire

Yorkshire

70 (county)

Sandwell

West Midlands

9

Shetland Isles

Scottish Highlands/Islands

No data

South Lanarkshire

Scotland

171

South Norfolk

East Anglia

41 (county)

South Tyneside

North East

8

Tamworth

West Midlands

18 (county)

Upper Bann

Northern Ireland

P

Westminster

London

173

Wrexham

North and Rural Wales

54

About 2.15

East Ayrshire

Scotland

120

Islington

London

132

About 2.30

Angus

Scotland

142

Barking and Dagenham

London

No data

Barnet

London

136

Barrow-in-Furness

North West

10 (county)

Broxbourne (Cheshunt)

South East

68 (county)

Caerphilly

South Wales

125

Castle Point ( Canvey Island)

South East

39 (county)

Conway

North and Rural Wales

91

Crawley

South East

69 (county)

Darlington

North East

154

Dundee City

Scotland

158

East Antrim

Northern Ireland

P

Harlow

South East

39 (county)

Havant

South East

58 (county)

Hertsmere (Borehamwood/Potters Bar)

South East

68 (county)

High Peak

Est Midlands

88 (county)

Hyndburn  (Accrington)

North West

97 (county)

Isle of Anglesey

North and Rural Wales

No data

Lambeth

London

185

Lincoln

East Midlands

29 (county)

Merton

London

179

North Dorset

South West

63 (county)

North Lanarkshire

Scotland

127

Ribble Valley

North West

97 (county)

Rugby

West Midlands

82 (county)

Rushmoor  (Aldershot)

South East

58 (county)

South Antrim

Northern Ireland

P

South Lakeland

North West

10 (county)

St Helens

North west

150

Staffordshire Moorlands

West Midlands

18 (county)

Swansea

Scotland

37

Woking

South East

75 (county)

About 2.45

Falkirk

Scotland

153

Oadby and Wigston

East Midlands

59 (county)

Wellingborough

East Midlands

15 (county)

About 3.00

Babergh

East Anglia

22 (county)

Barnsley

Yorkshire

11

Bolton

North West

94

Boston

East Anglia

29 (county)

Bridgend

South Wales

146

Bury

North West

35

Cambridge

East Anglia

108 (county)

Camden

London

184

Cannock Chase

West Midlands

18 (county)

Charnwood  (Loughborough)

East Midlands

59 (county)

Chelmsford

South East

39 (county)

Chesterfield

East Midlands

88 (county)

Chorley

North West

97 (county)

Colchester

East Anglia

39 (county)

Copeland  (Whitehaven)

North West

10 (county)

Dacorum  (Hemel Hempstead)

South East

68 (county)

Durham

North East

87 (county)

East Londonderry

Northern Ireland

P

East Lothian

Scotland

131

East Renfrewshire

Scotland

168

Eastleigh

South East

58 (county)

Enfield

London

124

Epsom and Ewell

South East

75 (county)

Exeter

South West

79 (county)

Fylde

North West

97 (county)

Gosport

South East

58 (county)

Gwynedd

North and Rural Wales

138

Haringey

London

172

Hastings

South East

69 (county)

Inverclyde

Scotland

No data

Knowsley

North West

No data

Maidstone

South East

47 (county)

Mid Suffolk

East Anglia

22 (county)

Midlothian

Scotland

170

Milton Keynes

South East

14

Monmouth

South Wales

117

Moray

Scottish Highlands and Islands

109

Newham

London

115

North Ayrshire

Scotland

140

North Devon

South West

79 (county)

North East Lincolnshire

East Midlands

40

North West Leicestershire

East Midlands

59 (county)

Orkney Islands

Scottish Highlands and Islands

No data

Pendle

North West

97 (county)

Perth and Kinross

Scottish Highlands and Islands

176

Peterborough

East Anglia

2

Reading

South East

110

Renfrewshire

Scotland

166

Rochdale

North West

104

Runnymede

South East

75 (county)

Sedgemoor  (Bridgwater)

South West

24 (county)

Shepway  (Folkestone)

South East

47 (county)

South Buckinghamshire

South East

45 (county)

Southwark

London

182

St Albans

South East

68 (county)

Stevenage

South East

68 (county)

Stratford-upon-Avon

West Midlands

82 (county)

Thanet

South East

47 (county)

Torbay

South West

16

Torfaen

South Wales

No data

Trafford

North West

156

Uttlesford  (Saffron Walden)

East Anglia

39 (county)

Warwick

West Midlands

82 (county)

West Berkshire

South East

73

West Dunbarton

Scotland

183

West Oxfordshire

South East

141 (county)

Weymouth

South West

63 (county)

Wokingham

South East

92

Wycombe

South East

45 (county)

Wyre  (Fleetwood)

North West

97 (county)

About 3.15

Hammersmith and Fulham

London

175

Sutton

London

123

Tandridge (Caterham/Lingfield)

South East

75 (county)

Telford and Wrekin

West Midlands

17

Wrexham

North and Rural Wales

54

About 3.30

Aberdeen

Scotland

187

Barnet

London

136

Basingstoke and Deane

South East

58 (county)

Bournemouth

South West

89

Brent

London

179

Burnley

North West

97 (county)

Carlisle

North West

10 (county)

Carmarthen

North and Rural Wales

99

Cheltenham

South West

101 (county)

Dartford

South East

47 (county)

Dudley

West Midlands

64

Dumfries and Galloway

Scotland

130

Edinburgh

Scotland

180

Epping Forest

South East

39 (county)

Erewash  (Ilkeston)

East Midlands

88 (county)

Fermanagh and Tyrone

Northern Ireland

C

Forest of Dean

South West

101 (county)

Gateshead

North East

98

Gedling

East Midlands

48 (county)

Greenwich

London

105

Halton

North West

65

Harrow

London

113

King’s Lynn and West Norfolk

East Anglia

41 (county)

Hull

Yorkshire

Lancaster

North West

Melton

East Midlands

59 (county)

Newark and Sherwood

East Midlands

48 (county)

Newport

South Wales

36

Newry and Armagh

Northern Ireland

C

Portsmouth

South East

80

Powys

North and Rural Wales

167

Preston

North West

97 (county)

Purbeck

South West

63 (county)

Redbridge

London

60

Redcar and Cleveland

North East

66

Rhondda Cynon Taff

South Wales

157

Rochford

South East

39 (county)

Rossendale

North West

97 (county)

Scarborough

Yorkshire

70 (county)

South Derbyshire

East Midlands

88 (county)

South Down

Northern Ireland

C

South Hams  (Dartmouth)

South East

79 (county)

South Somerset

South West

24 (county)

Southend-on-Sea

South East

6

Suffolk Coastal

East Anglia

22 (county)

Surrey Heath

South East

75 (county)

Taunton Deane

South West

24 (county)

Three Rivers  (Chorleywood/Rickmansworth)

South East

68 (county)

Tower Hamlets

London

162

Walsall

West Midlands

121

Watford

South East

68 (county)

West Lothian

Scotland

155

Worcester

West Midlands

74 (county)

About 3.45

Corby

East Midlands

15 (county)

Fife

Scotland

159

About 4.00

Allerdale   (Workington)

North West

10 (county)

Argyll and Bute

Scottish Highlands and Islands

174

Ashford

South East

47 (county)

Bedford

South East

103

Birmingham

West Midlands

90

Blackburn with Darwen

North West

5

Blackpool

North West

4

Bolsover

East Midlands

88 (county)

Breckland

East Anglia

41 (county)

Brentwood

South East

39 (county)

Brighton and Hove

South East

148

Bromley

London

53

Bromsgrove

West Midlands

74 (county)

Canterbury

South East

47 (county)

Cardiff

South Wales

169

Ceredigion

North and Rural Wales

188

Chiltern  (Amersham/Chesham)

South East

45 (county)

Craven  (Skipton)

Yorkshire

70 (county)

Croydon

London

118

Daventry

East Midlands

15 (county)

Doncaster

Yorkshire

25

East Dunbartonshire

Scotland

151

East Riding

Yorkshire

77

Eastbourne

South East

69 (county)

Elmbridge  (Esher/Weybridge)

South East

75 (county)

Fareham

South East

58 (county)

Forest Heath  (Newmarket)

East Anglia

22 (county)

Gloucester

South West

101 (county)

Hambleton (Northallerton/Thirsk)

Yorkshire

70 (county)

Harrogate

Yorkshire

70 (county)

Havering

London

1

Horsham

South East

38 (county)

Huntingdon

East Anglia

108 (county)

Lewes

South East

69 (county)

Lewisham

London

116

Lichfield

West Midlands

18 (county)

Mansfield

East Midlands

48 (county)

Mendip

South West

24 (county)

Mid Ulster

Northern Ireland

C

Mole Valley  (Dorking)

South East

75 (county)

Newcastle-under-Lyme

West Midlands

18 (county)

Norwich

East Anglia

41 (county)

Pembroke

North and Rural Wales

102

Redditch

West Midlands

74 (county)

Rother  (Bexhill)

South East

69 (county)

Rushcliffe

East Midlands

48 (county)

Scottish Borders

Scotland

147

Selby

Yorkshire

70 (county)

Sevenoaks

South east

47 (county)

Solihull

West Midlands

20

South Cambridgeshire

East Anglia

108 (county)

South Ribble

North West

97 (county)

South Staffordshire

West Midlands

18 (county)

Southampton

South East

137

St Edmundsbury  (Bury St Edmunds)

East Anglia

22 (county)

Stafford

West Midlands

18 (county)

Stoke-on-Trent

West Midlands

122

Stroud

South West

101 (county)

Swale   (Faversham)

South East

47 (county)

Tendring  (Clacton)

South East

39 (county)

Test Valley  (Andover)

South East

58 (county)

Tonbridge and Malling

South East

47 (county)

Wakefield

Yorkshire

100

Waltham Forest

London

114

Waverley  (Farnham)

South East

75 (county)

West Dorset

South West

63 (county)

West Lancashire

North West

97 (county)

Wirral

North West

149

Wolverhampton

West Midlands

46

Wyre Forest (Kidderminster)

West Midlands

74 (county)

York

Yorkshire

163

About 4.30

Ashford

 South East

47 (county)

Aylesbury Vale

South East

45 (county)

Bassetlaw

East Midlands

48 (county)

Bexley

London

61

Chichester

South East

38 (county)

Christchurch

South West

58 (county)

East Dorset

South West

63 (county)

Eden  (Penrith)

North West

10 (county)

Great Yarmouth

East Anglia

41 (county)

Hackney

London

181

Isle of Wight

South East

31

Kingston-upon-Thames

London

84

Middlesbrough

North East

No data

North East Derbyshire

East Midlands

88 (county)

North Lincolnshire

East Midlands

49

Northumberland

North East

67

Poole

South West

62

Sheffield

Yorkshire

119

South Oxfordshire

South East

141 (county)

Spelthorne

South East

75 (county)

Stockton-on-Tees

North East

30

Teignbridge

South West

79 (county)

Tewkesbury

South West

101 (county)

Warrington

North West

7

Welwyn Hatfield

South East

68 (county)

Wiltshire

South West

96

About 4.45

Kirklees

Yorkshire

86

About 5.00

Aberdeenshire

Scottish Highlands and Islands

143

Amber Valley

East Midlands

88 (county)

Blaby

East Midlands

59 (county)

Bradford

Yorkshire

13

Calderdale  (Halifax)

Yorkshire

145

Central Bedfordshire

South East

19

Cheshire West

North West

111

Coventry

West Midlands

43

Derby

East Midlands

88 (county)

East Cambridgeshire

East Anglia

72

East Devon

South West

79 (county)

Glasgow

Scotland

177

Gravesham

South East

47 (county)

Highlands

Scottish Highlands and Islands

161

Hillingdon

London

57

Hounslow

London

85

Kensington and Chelsea

London

No data

Kettering

East Midlands

15 (county)

Leeds

Yorkshire

144

Liverpool

North West

164

Luton

South East

21

Manchester

North West

160

North Kesteven

East Midlands

29 (county)

Plymouth

South West

23

Richmond-upon-Thames

London

112

Slough

South East

No data

South Ayrshire

Scotland

152

South Holland  (Spalding)

East Anglia

29 (county)

Tameside  (Ashton/Stalybridge)

North West

34

Torridge  (Bideford)

South West

79 (county)

West Devon

South West

79 (county)

West Lindsey  (Gainsborough)

East Midlands

29 (county)

Wychavon (Droitwich/Evsham)

West Midlands

74 (county)

About 5.30

Cotswold  (Cirencester)

South West

101 (county)

Derbyshire Dales

East Midlands

88 (county)

Fenland  (Wisbech)

East Anglia

108 (county)

Guildford

South East

75 (county)

North Norfolk

East Anglia

41 (county)

Reigate and Banstead

South East

75 (county)

South Gloucestershire

South West

81

About 6.00

Bath and NE Somerset

South West

107

Bristol

South West

165

Cherwell  (Banbury)

South East

141 (county)

Cornwall

South west

44

East Lindsey  (Louth/Horncastle)

East Midlands

29 (county)

East Northamptonshire

East Midlands

15 (county)

Hinckley and Bosworth

East Midlands

59 (county)

Maldon

South East

39 (county)

Medway

South East

56

Northampton

East Midlands

15 (county)

Windsor and Maidenhead

South East

93

Rutland

East Midlands

No data

Sefton  (Bootle/Southport)

North West

33

Shropshire

West Midlands

51

South Kesteven  (Grantham)

East Anglia

29 (county)

South Northamptonshire

East Midlands

15 (county)

Wealden  (Uckfield/Crowborough)

South East

69 (county)

About 6.30

Adur  (Shoreham/Lancing)

South East

38 (county)

Herefordshire

West Midlands

55

Leicester

East Midlands

128

North Somerset  (Weston-super-Mare)

South West

28

Nottingham

East Midlands

139

Winchester

South East

58 (county)

Worthing

South East

38 (county)

About 7.00

Arun  (Bognor Regis/Littlehampton)

South East

38 (county)

Cheshire East

North West

78

Harborough

East Midlands

59 (county)

Waveney  (Lowesftoft)

East Anglia

22 (county)


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