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MERTON - prediction No Overall Control, result Labour Gai

Labour and the Conservatives were only one seat apart in 2010 with Lib Dems and Residents holding the balance of power. 

The borough is polarised with Labour very strong in the east and the Conservatives in the west. There is only one real marginal ward, Abbey, which was split last time and where Labour should pick up two seats. 

After this Lower Morden and Trinity both need a 7% swing which may be beyond them, though there is a sizeable Lib Dem vote to squeeze in each ward. 

The other factor is the split in the Conservative Group with two councillors joining UKIP, one of them the former leader who is now standing for UKIP in Lower Morden, and two becoming Independents so this may weaken the party.  

West Barnes is a Lib Dem/Conservative battleground with the Lib Dems needing to hold it to keep representation on the council.  There are also keep St Helier Hospital candidates so shades of Wyre Forest.

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